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Paper:ewp-io/9512002
From: John Rust <   > 
Date: Fri, 15 Dec 1995 17:46:13 GMT
Date (revised): Fri, 15 Dec 1995 17:52:17 GMT
Date (revised): Fri, 15 Dec 1995 20:28:09 GMT
Date (revised): Fri, 19 Jan 1996 15:51:02 GMT

• Title: On the Optimal Lifetime of Nuclear Power Plants
• Author: John Rust (University of Wisconsin) and Geoffrey Rothwell (Stanford University)
• Contact:
• Comments: TeX file, Postscript version submitted, 34 pages
• Report-no:
• EWP References: unassigned RR 1

Abstract: This paper presents a dynamic programming (DP) model of optimal operation of a nuclear power plant (NPP). In each period the operator decides whether to run the reactor at a given capacity level, to shut it down for preventive maintenance or refueling, or permanently close the plant for decommissioning. The maximal lifespan of a NPP is determined by the length of the operating license issued by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The optimal lifespan of a NPP (from the private perspective of the plant owner as opposed to the social perspective of the regulator) is the solution to a generalized optimal stopping problem: one closes a plant as soon as the expected discounted value of future operating profits (losses) falls below the costs of decommissioning. This model extends the DP model of NPP operations introduced in Rust and Rothwell (1995) by allowing for the occurrence of ``major problem spells''. The DP model predicts that under ordinary operating conditions it is highly unlikely that an NPP will be closed, but that the probability of decommissioning increases by orders of magnitude during a major problem spell. We compare the actual evolution of the nuclear power industry over the period 1984 to 1994 to stochastic simulations of our estimated DP model and show that our model provides accurate out-of-sample predictions of total nuclear power generation and early retirements of NPPs. We use the estimated DP model to forecast nuclear power generation and plant closures under two policy scenarios: 1) the current 40 year license span with no possibility of extension, and 2) a ``costless'' extension in operating licenses to 60 years. Our simulations show that an immediate, costless extension in operating licenses to 60 years would extend the life of the US nuclear power industry from 2030 to 2050 and double the expected present discounted value of profits of NPPs.

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EconWPA began as a conversation between Bob Parks and Larry Blume on January 28, 1993. I located Paul Ginsparg's archive (then xxx.lanl.gov) and he graciously installed his software on a Sun Sparc system which was supporting the department of economics email and computation. EconWPA began accepting papers July 1, 1993 and had ftp, email, gopher and web interfaces. The web interface for submissions was engineered into existence in July 1995. A complete and catastrophic machine failure in 1999 caused the loss of EconWPA's email new paper announcment service at which time there were over 15,000 subscriptions with over 8,000 unique email addresses.

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A Chinese curse states May you live in intersting times. I have. Bob Parks - Jan 2006